Warnock battles strong headwinds in Georgia

Sen. Raphael Warnock (D) faces an increasingly difficult battle for re-election in Georgia just 16 months after winning a 2021 runoff, along with Democratic Sen. Jon Ossoff, who appeared to usher in a new era in the peach state.

Polls show Warnock is just behind in a close race, and the national political atmosphere has turned against Democrats as President Biden’s approval ratings remain in the low 40s amid voter discontent over high gas prices and inflation.

Warnock is widely seen as a strong candidate, focusing on issues important to the Georgia Democrats, like voting rights and insulin costs, while demonstrating his independence from Biden on issues like immigration, all with the solemnity of a pastor still in preaches in a famous church. But Democrats warn that if an expected GOP surge is high enough this year, that may still not be enough to save him.

“I think he did as much as you can, he was as effective as you can be. But I think there’s a bigger dynamic at play,” said Jarrod Loadholt, a partner in the public affairs practice at law firm Ice Miller, who lives in Georgia. “I think every single Democrat doing this cycle nationwide, especially in states that are more evenly divided, is going to have to deal with it. As a great candidate, you need that, but it’s not enough.”

Warnock, who won a runoff election to end the term of former Senator Johnny Isakson (R) in January 2021, shocked skeptics in the former GOP stronghold and joined Ossoff in helping Senate Democrats win their current razor-thin majority.

Now, in a race for his own tenure, Warnock finds himself at the forefront of the midterm battlefield, holding a seat that could hold the key to future control of the Senate. Warnock is expected to face off against former soccer star Herschel Walker in a race that will see millions of dollars spent campaigning for even the slightest advantage.

Warnock spent his early tenure at the forefront of what campaigners say are some of the biggest issues facing Georgia Democrats, particularly as one of the most vocal advocates of expanding ballot access. He pushed for an amendment to the Senate filibuster to pass legislation on the issue, but internal Democratic bickering thwarted the effort.

He has also backed calls for forgiveness of student loan debt, worked to solve supply problems at the Port of Savannah, and is now at the center of a push to cut insulin costs. And in a nod to the expansive military presence in Georgia, Warnock has expressed support for increased Pentagon funding in President Biden’s budget.

Most recently, Warnock spoke out against the Biden administration’s decision to repeal a rule allowing authorities to quickly expel migrants at the border to prevent the spread of COVID-19 amid questions about how people would be treated now .

Washington observers, who wanted to define candidates as either moderate or progressive, were frustrated by such attitudes. But defenders say the fact that Warnock cannot be properly pigeonholed ideologically is a by-product of his focus on the Georgians.

“I think he managed to really block out the noise and focus on the lyrics that come from the people of Georgia and their priorities. You can’t call him progressive or moderate. All you have to do is designate him as Senator for Georgia,” said Democratic strategist Antjuan Seawright.

With Walker, Warnock is likely up against a candidate who has personal baggage. The Republican has faced allegations of domestic abuse and questions about business practices from his ex-wife, which hasn’t stopped him from solidifying support for the GOP but does give Democrats possible lines of attack.

“When you run for political office, everything is on the table,” said a Georgia Democrat strategist.

Still, Warnock is expected to be caught in a nightmare of a political environment that observers on both sides of the aisle say is giving Republicans an early advantage.

“I’d say it should be an advantage for Warnock based on his record, but it’s going to be a tough race,” the Democratic strategist said.

Warnock, like most Democrats, is expected to swim against the tide over widespread discontent over inflation, COVID-19 and more. He also runs in a tightly divided state where it wouldn’t take a massive wave to give one party an advantage.

That left Walker with an early poll advantage. A poll by The Hill and Emerson College released Wednesday showed Walker is just outside his margin of error.

The current environment contrasts with Warnock’s previous victory, when a wave of Democratic enthusiasm against Donald Trump and the former president’s repeated allegations of voter fraud helped push GOP turnout enough to help Warnock win.

“He was a gravity beneficiary and he will be a gravity victim,” said Georgia-based GOP strategist Chip Lake. “What the last election cycle has shown is that we have the ability to be a purple state … but it’s getting into a more difficult environment right now and I think that’s going to be its Achilles’ heel.”

Warnock also faces uncertainty over the impact of an election law passed by Georgia restricting ballot access, which Democrats warn could potentially dampen turnout in key constituencies.

“It’s difficult to just talk about horse racing without talking about this big thing that will fundamentally change the way Georgians vote,” said Nsé Ufot, head of the New Georgia Project, who hailed Warnock as an “extraordinary candidate”.

To even out the margin of the GOP, Warnock needs to reduce turnout as much as possible.

Such a task might be daunting in an interim year like this, but Warnock will likely share the vote with Stacey Abrams, the prominent activist and gubernatorial candidate who Democrats hope could match turnout at around 2020 levels.

“That’s going to be hard to top,” Loadhold said, looking ahead to 2020. “I think it obviously remains to be seen. But you see, if there’s one gubernatorial candidate who could help ignite that enthusiasm, it’s Stacey Abrams. If there’s one Senate candidate who could spark that kind of enthusiasm, I think it’s Raphael Warnock.”

Warnock has also proven himself to be an effective activist, fending off GOP efforts to tie him to the broader Democratic Party in 2020 with an effective publicity blitz, including a much-lauded video in which Republicans would say he “hates puppies.”

That kind of effort could be doubly important this time with a Democrat in the White House to tie Warnock to.

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“His publicity team did a really great job using humor to help diffuse some of the attacks on him and to point out how absurd some of the attacks on him were,” the Georgia Democratic strategist said. “For Senator Warnock and Democrats to be writ large, Democrats must take disinformation campaigns extremely seriously.”

Of course, Democrats insist they have the right candidate in terms of politics and campaigning skills, and conventional wisdom in 2020 indicated that Warnock and Ossof would fight in runoffs. But they still recognize that Warnock is in the struggle of his political life.

“I’m a progressive living in Georgia,” Ufot said, “and being right, having good ideas and running a good campaign is never enough.”