The South Caucasian country of Georgia, once seen as a model for democratic transition among ex-Soviet states and a pioneer in Euro-Atlantic integration, is at risk of democratic relapse and may lose its chance to become a candidate for European Union (EU) membership . As the world’s attention turns to Ukraine, Russian influence in the country is increasing, despite strong public support for EU and North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) membership. The United States and the European Union should step up pressure on Georgian lawmakers – through financial support for Georgia and the prospect of an EU candidate – to reverse the trend of democratic backsliding and growing Russian influence in the country ahead of October 2024 general elections to reverse Otherwise, a slide toward authoritarianism in Georgia would set a dangerous precedent across Eastern Europe and beyond.
Democratic throwback
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Hopes for successful democratic transition in Georgia have slowly faded over the past decade and concerns about democratic decline have increased, particularly after the Russian invasion of Ukraine. A poll conducted in March 2022 found that 41 percent of Georgians felt democracy had declined over the past year. The country’s ruling party, Georgian Dream, has been accused of increasing control over state institutions and security forces, interfering with the work of civil society and independent media, and committing electoral errors (e.g. voter intimidation, vote-buying, pressuring candidates and voters). ). and the promotion of unequal conditions of competition) and the application of selective justice. The party won the last three parliamentary elections since 2012, largely due to widespread disapproval of former Georgian President Mikhail Saakashvili’s misconduct in the latter years of his presidency. However, the imprisonment and illness of the former reform leader, who is being held in a hospital in Tbilisi and describes himself as a “political prisoner”, is seen as a metaphor for the state of democracy in Georgia. Expectations for more accountability, transparency and less oligarchic influence in Georgian politics have not been fulfilled. Georgian Dream’s founder – billionaire Bidzina Ivanishvili, who made his fortune in Russia – continues to wield excessive political influence in Georgia, although he no longer holds an official role. One of his priority goals was the normalization of relations with Moscow, with which he maintains business relations to this day.
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Georgia’s democratic backsliding has undermined its path to EU membership. The Russian invasion of Georgia in 2008 left around 20 percent of Georgian territory under Russian control, pushing public opinion in favor of the EU. Once at the forefront of the “association trio” of Georgia, Moldova and Ukraine — all countries that have signed association agreements with the European Union that facilitate trade and visa-free travel — Georgia failed to gain EU candidate status in July 2022, when Moldova and Ukraine became one the candidacy granted. Instead, the EU has given Georgia 12 priorities that the country must address, including strengthening the independence of the judiciary and the media and combating the country’s oligarchic tendencies. In December 2023, the EU will vote again on Georgia’s candidate status. But while 88 percent of Georgians support EU membership, Georgia appears to be moving further and further away from democratic norms and EU values.
A failed foreign agent law
In March 2023, the Georgian government introduced a “foreign agent” law that would have forced any organization that receives more than 20 percent of its funds from foreign companies to register as a foreign agent. The government claims the law aimed to combat “transparency and foreign influence”. However, the legislation mimics Russian President Vladimir Putin’s 2012 law on foreign agents, which marked a crucial turning point towards authoritarianism in Russia. After tens of thousands of protesters rallied in Tbilisi in response to the draft law, parliament withdrew the law that would have targeted civil society organizations, corruption watchdogs and independent media. However, it is possible that Georgian Dream will try to pass a similar law in the future.
Russia’s quest for influence
Paradoxically, the legacy of Russia’s 2008 war against Georgia has meant Georgian Dream’s cautious support for Ukraine’s war against Russia in 2022 – partly out of a sense of vulnerability. However, at the same time, the government has allowed Russia to increase its influence in Georgia. Almost 90 percent of Georgians support Ukraine and a majority believe Russia and Putin are to blame for the war. However, the government has not joined Western-led sanctions against Russia and is keeping its distance from Kiev. Voices from around the Georgian Dream accuse the West of wanting to draw Georgia into the war in Ukraine. Prime Minister Irakli Garibashvili blamed NATO enlargement and Ukraine’s desire to join as one of the main reasons for the war.
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Georgia also functioned as a thoroughfare for western goods to Russia. Trade between Russia and Georgia has increased by more than 20 percent since Russia invaded Ukraine. Cargo transit between Turkey and Russia (much of which was transported via Georgia) tripled in the first six months of 2022. The Georgian government claims it is complying with international sanctions imposed on Russia, despite the increase in trade. In May 2023, Putin issued a decree allowing Georgians to travel to Russia without a visa and lifted a 2019 ban on Russian airlines from operating direct flights from Georgia to Russia. This drew strong criticism from the US and EU, as well as from the people of Georgia, but the government defended the move.
Keep Georgia on track
The United States and the European Union must work together to step up pressure on Georgia’s lawmakers ahead of the December vote on the country’s EU candidacy and October 2024 general elections. The European Parliament has called on the European Council to sanction Ivanishvili for his role in “deteriorating the political process in Georgia” and to release Saakashvili on appropriate medical treatment. The United States has imposed sanctions on four serving and former Georgian judges for corruption and abuse of power that have undermined public confidence in the judiciary. If the domestic political situation in Georgia does not improve, the EU and the US can make future aid to Georgia conditional on stopping the democratic backsliding.
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Georgia’s future matters beyond the borders of the small South Caucasian country and is linked to the war in Ukraine. Success in Ukraine would show that an alternative future outside Russia’s shadow is possible. But a democratic failure in Georgia would be a painful example of how even a country once seemingly irreversibly on the road to democracy and Euro-Atlantic integration can slip back into autocracy and succumb once again to Russia’s sphere of influence.
