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NEW JOB: First, some big news on the home front: POLITICO has hired Sam Wilkin as the editor of POLITICO Pro, overseeing our policy journalism in Europe. Sam brings a deep understanding of the landscape for subscription journalism from his current role as managing editor at MLex. A warm welcome to Sam from his predecessor in the job — yours truly. Sam starts with us in early March.
GOOD MORNING. It’s great to be back after some Pandoro-infused downtime in Italy. Brussels still feels super sleepy (OK, clinically dead) but things are revving up ahead of the big rentrée on Monday. Tanks for Ukraine, COVID, Qatargate, Europe’s response to Biden’s IRA — it’s all popping off. Let’s go!
DRIVING THE DAY: SWEDISH PRESIDENCY INTERVIEW
HAVE YOU MET LARS DANIELSSON? Sweden’s ambassador to the EU, a veteran diplomat who’s had stints in Hong Kong, Berlin and Seoul (his CV), has already been hard at work brokering a deal on COVID restrictions for Chinese travel to the bloc — the first such agreement under Sweden’s Council presidency, which started January 1.
**A message from the United Nations World Food Programme: For the hundreds of millions of hungry people around the world, hardship has no expiration date, and the end of a calendar year means little. In 2023, WFP and the European Union are working together to reach everyone in need with the right support, no matter who or where they are.**
But things are about to get trickier, as Commission President Ursula von der Leyen leads her College up to frigid Kiruna in northernmost Sweden next week amid disagreement on how to respond to Washington’s Inflation Reduction Act. In a rapid-fire 37-minute chat, Danielsson expanded on everything from migration to Qatargate. Highlights:
ON COVID: The travel deal sends a message to Beijing: “It’s important to tell our friends in China, ‘Look, there is a problem here.’ One of the reasons why we need to do this is that they have not been so forthcoming about providing statistics about what the situation actually is in China right now.”
Just in time: While there’s been limited travel to Europe from China for years, Beijing is easing some restrictions on January 8, which is likely to bring more visitors. “Given the uncertainty of the situation in China,” Danielsson said, it’s “logical … to demand testing” now.
ON MIGRATION: “I’ve been a little bit misunderstood,” said Danielsson, referring to reports that Sweden won’t conclude a deal on the EU migration pact by the time it passes the Council presidency baton to Spain in mid-2023. It’s just that the timetable agreed between EU institutions foresees things wrapping up in early 2024.
But Sweden is bullish on making progress. “We see very clearly that we need to step up our efforts in each and every one of these areas in order to give some tangible results — which basically means better protection of our borders,” Danielsson said, referring to border protection, fighting human trafficking and returns policy.
Time is ripe. “There is a rather high consensus” between EU countries on the need to address migration from outside the bloc, Danielsson said. “I sense that there is now actually a somewhat better situation, a somewhat better possibility to have agreement on this external aspect … I do not expect a lot of concrete results from the European Council in February, but what we are working with right now as we speak is a somewhat clearer strategy on how we deal with this.”
‘This,’ meaning? Europe’s response to an incoming wave of migration, chiefly from southern Asia, which Danielsson said was in large part made up of people seeking better economic conditions, not asylum. “The incentive for people to come is very human and easy to understand — they want to seek a better life. Which of course is very understandable. But it’s not a reason for protection.”
Come again? “It’s an acute problem,” said the 69-year-old, who noted rising angst about migration in the Netherlands, among other countries. Dutch Prime Minister Mark Rutte “is the most optimistic person you can find on earth, at least on European earth. He’s now extremely worried about the situation.”
Which calls for more ‘stick’: While working on “carrots” — development assistance for countries of origin, among other things — was “always easy,” said Danielsson, “when we come to the sticks it becomes much more difficult.”
“Shall we use the visa instruments that we have? Shall we have the instrument of GSP [Generalized Scheme of Preferences] or not?” Danielsson asked. “So we have these measures, and we need to agree one each and every one of these.”
The right stuff: It won’t escape anyone’s notice that “more stick” is probably what the Sweden Democrats, the far-right party supporting the country’s conservative government, would want from EU migration policy. In fact, speaking to Dagens Nyheter, Swedish Prime Minister Ulf Kristersson allowed that even if the SD won’t be shaping EU policies, the party “will yet have an influence on matters covered under Sweden’s presidency.”
Migration focus: “About every seventh question which may land on our table during the presidency is such where we have good reason to discuss with the Sweden Democrats. That mainly concerns migration issues, energy supply, law enforcement,” Kristersson told the paper.
Yet Danielsson insisted his presidency won’t be parroting the Swedish government. “This” — his approach to migration — “is in line with what the Swedish government thinks, but this is not the role of the presidency,” he said.
Stay tuned on Monday for more from Danielsson on the IRA, Qatargate and what Swedish government officials do with gifts.
**Subscribe to POLITICO’s Davos Playbook newsletter today. During the world economic forum in Davos you’ll receive a daily touchstone on the significant conversations and newsworthy events coming out of Davos #wef23.**
ARMING UKRAINE
US, FRANCE, GERMANY BREAK TABOO: In the latest of many historical about-faces since last February 24, Germany and France announced Thursday they would join the United States in delivering armored combat vehicles, as well as Patriot missile batteries, to Ukraine.
Ch-ch-changes: That’s a big move for Berlin, which for months had argued that Germany couldn’t act alone to send combat vehicles to Kyiv, among other, ahem, reasons for holding back. France is also shifting its stance, after President Emmanuel Macron came under fire last year from Ukraine and some EU capitals for his insistence on the need for dialogue with Russian President Vladimir Putin.
Is it a tank? Notwithstanding a geeky online debate about whether French AMX-10 RC combat vehicles and German Marders are actually tanks, the deliveries offer a boost to Ukraine’s ability to defend itself against Russia as Moscow continues to pummel Ukrainian cities and infrastructure with drone and missile attacks.
What’s actually coming? According to Spiegel, Germany plans to send “up to” 40 Marders to Ukraine. The United States will send 50 Bradley Fighting Vehicles, per officials. While France hasn’t officially disclosed how many AMX-10 RC combat vehicles it’s sending to Ukraine, retired French General Jérôme Pellistrandi told my Paris colleague Clea Caulcutt that some 30 of them were available immediately for Ukraine because they’re being replaced by newer models for the French army.
Nothing from UK? Asked whether London would follow suit with deliveries of its own during a presser with his German counterpart, U.K. Foreign Minister James Cleverly left the door open on Thursday. “We will continue to speak with the Ukrainians about what they need for the next phase of their self-defense … tanks may well be part of that.”
Battlefield impact: In an analysis you can read here, Clea lays out how these combat vehicles might affect the battlefield dynamic in Ukraine, where front lines have been largely stable since late last year despite a grinding Russian offensive around Bakhmut.
Offensive aid: François Heisbourg, senior adviser for Europe at the International Institute for Strategic Studies, said: “It’s an armored reconnaissance vehicle and it’s a contribution destined to help Ukraine recover lost territories.”
But but but: Per Michel Goya, a retired colonel and defense consultant, the deliveries don’t give Kyiv a decisive advantage. “It can help, but in terms of numbers it’s not much given that there are hundreds of tanks and thousands of armored vehicles in Ukraine. The Ukrainians will use them well, but they don’t fire as far as Russian tanks.” Our U.S. colleagues Lara Seligman and Paul McLeary argue here that the shipment may pave the way for what Ukraine really wants: main battle tanks.
Bottom line: New year, new paradigm. Whereas Western countries had so far maintained a taboo against sending their own heavy fighting vehicles to Ukraine, the planned shipments show that Washington, first and foremost, is ready to cross this line. Now stand by for calls for NATO to go further — by shipping out Leopard, Leclerc and Abrams tanks, as well as long-range missile and fighter jets.
MEANWHILE, IN RUSSIA: Pro-war bloggers are pointing the finger at their own military chiefs over Russia’s failings in the war, and calling for heads to roll, reports Jamie Dettmer.
MEANWHILE, IN BELARUS: Nobel Peace Prize laureate Ales Bialiatski went on trial in Minsk on Thursday on charges of financing protests against the country’s authoritarian government; he faces up to 12 years in prison, reports Sergei Kuznetsov.
2024 CAMPAIGN
MELONI AND WEBER HUDDLE IN ROME: Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni met with Manfred Weber, head of the European People’s Party, in Rome — where Weber had come to attend Pope Benedict’s funeral, according to Meloni’s office.
Looking ahead: In an interview with Italian agency Adnkronos, Brothers of Italy MEP Nicola Procaccini said the meeting was about exploring a possible alliance between the EPP and Meloni’s European Conservatives and Reformists ahead of the 2024 European Parliament election, when conservatives aim to box out the Socialists.
Momentum: “The dialogue between the Conservatives and the EPP continues and is strengthened also thanks to the fact that the two political forces are gaining support in their respective countries,” Procaccini said. Meloni’s office confirmed that she and Weber had discussed the European election, Hannah Roberts reports from Rome.
Per an EPP official to Playbook, the meeting between Meloni and Weber — their second — focused on coordinating positions ahead of a migration summit in February.
You heard it here first: But the flirtation between Meloni’s ECR group and Weber’s EPP has been going on for some time, as Playbook reported late last year following a meeting between Meloni and Parliament President Roberta Metsola.
At the time, EPP campaign chief Thanasis Bakolas said he was keeping an “open mind” regarding a potential alliance with the ECR, arguing that the Italian prime minister’s positions had not, as of late November, crossed any red lines for the mainstream conservatives.
Key background: This has all grown more urgent as the EPP seeks to entrench its position as the EU’s biggest political force in 2024, in the wake of the Qatargate scandal that has hit the rival Socialists and Democrats group due to the involvement of its lawmakers.
AND SPEAKING OF QATARGATE: On POLITICO’s EU Confidential podcast, Slovenia’s Prime Minister Robert Golob expressed his disbelief at the system in place that allowed the alleged bribery of European officials to flourish. “I was stupefied by hearing what kind of a regime they had up to now when it comes to former parliamentarians, to former members and to former staff members,” he said. Listen to the podcast in full here.
KAILI UPDATE: Former European Parliament Vice President Eva Kaili will get to see her toddler daughter at Brussels’ Haren prison today, one of her lawyers said. The lawyer added that previous requests by the MEP, who’s awaiting trial over corruption allegations, were rejected, with the Belgian authorities citing lack of personnel due to the holiday period, Nektaria Stamouli reports.
IN OTHER NEWS
INFLATION FIGURES COMING TODAY: Hotly anticipated inflation figures for the eurozone will be released today. The expectation is that inflation will have fallen sharply at the end of 2022. Johanna Treeck has the details.
GERMAN LIBERALS HEAD TO TAIWAN: A group of FDP politicians is set to visit Taiwan next week. The delegation includes prominent party members like Deputy Chairman Johannes Vogel and Marie-Agnes Strack-Zimmermann, chair of the German defense committee — known for her support of Ukraine. Vogel warned ahead of the trip that there is a threat of a militarily enforced reunification of Taiwan with China. The trip is scheduled to begin Monday.
AIRLINES BASH CHINA TRAVEL RESTRICTIONS: The aviation industry’s hopes for a big boost in passenger numbers from China are being dashed by the growing number of countries imposing COVID measures on people traveling from there. Airline and airport lobbies put out a joint statement to “lament” Wednesday’s decision by EU countries to strongly recommend travelers from China undergo a COVID test before arriving in Europe, calling it a “knee-jerk reaction,” Mari Eccles reports.
IRELAND’S DRY JANUARY: Resistance is growing to forthcoming legislation in Ireland which aims to introduce new labeling requirements on alcohol products. The legislation would slap warning labels on bottles of booze, highlighting the link between alcohol and cancer, and containing information on alcohol content. But some EU countries aren’t happy.
Brussels angle: While civic groups have welcomed the measures, nine EU countries have objected — mainly on single market grounds, while also arguing that it undermines the bloc’s planned harmonized approach to alcohol labeling. (Unsurprisingly they’re some of Europe’s biggest alcohol producers, including France, Spain and Italy.)
Next steps: The Irish legislation needs to get the green light from the Commission — both from DG GROW (internal market division) and DG SANTE (health). A recent consultation period attracted a flurry of representations from affected parties.
Playbook got a peek at a recent opinion by France — though it underlines that Paris supports an “ambitious” approach toward the fight against harmful use of alcohol, it adds: “Nevertheless, the French authorities believe that the draft regulation proposed by the Irish authorities is not compatible with European Union law.” Quelle surprise.
Italy also argued the bill is contrary to EU law, as it would be an obstacle to the free movement of goods, given companies exporting to Ireland would have to fork out to adhere to the rules.
US SPEAKER VOTE UPDATE: Kevin McCarthy overnight failed in his 11th attempt to be elected U.S. House of Representatives speaker — but our Stateside colleagues report there are hopes for a tentative deal with conservatives in the party.
DRIVING THE YEAR, PART 3
MORE PREDICTIONS FROM TOP OFFICIALS: We brought you reading ideas and 2023 insights from Ursula von der Leyen and several top officials on Monday and Tuesday. Here’s Part 3 of the series …
HEALTH COMMISSIONER STELLA KYRIAKIDES
Favorite book you read in 2022: “‘No Time to Lose,’ by prof Peter Piot. More timely and topical than ever.”
The 3 developments that will matter most in 2023: “The Russian invasion of Ukraine. The COVID pandemic. The climate emergency.”
Vital scarce good or product in 2023? “Gas.”
MIGRATION COMMISSIONER MARGARITIS SCHINAS
Favorite book in 2022: “’DO NOT FORGET ME — Three Jewish Mothers Write to Their Sons from the Thessaloniki Ghetto,’ edited by Leon Saltiel. A dramatic account of the last days before the centuries-old Jewish community of Thessaloniki is sent to the extermination camps.”
3 developments in 2023: “The end of the war in Ukraine: and if we can lay the foundations for lasting peace and security in Europe. The EU-U.S. relationship: the rules-based world order depends on us overcoming our differences to maintain our strong alliance. Turning migration into a success story: Europe this year has the unique opportunity to turn the page and set up a future-proof framework for managing migration at home and abroad.”
Next scarce good: “Democracy.”
COMMISSIONER FOR JOBS AND SOCIAL RIGHTS NICOLAS SCHMIT
Favorite book in 2022: “Le Mage du Kremlin” by Giuliano da Empoli.
3 developments in 2023: “The war in Ukraine; The capacity of the EU to act politically, economically and security-wise in a totally changing environment; To prevent social crisis in increasingly divided societies.”
Next scarce good: “Basic drugs, because the production has been largely delocalized.”
VALUES COMMISSIONER VĚRA JOUROVÁ
Favorite book in 2022: “Guzel Yakhina’s ‘The Children of the Volga’ — it is a powerful reminder of a cruel realities in war-torn Russia at the beginning of 20th century. We must never forget that war is not only geopolitics, strategies or weapons. War means hundreds of thousands of personal tragedies. This is why we have a moral duty to stop Russia today.”
3 developments in 2023: “Ending the brutal aggression of Russia on Ukraine and dealing with the consequences of the war. This means more support for Ukraine and strong and painful sanctions on Russia. We have to keep unity and never resign to Russia’s blackmail. Quality of life for the people. This means managing the economic transition so that EU remains competitive, people have decent jobs and businesses adapt to the change successfully … [and] managing inflation and high energy prices, as well as making our economy less dependent on unpredictable autocrats … Upholding democracy and its rights and freedoms such as rule of law, media freedom and free speech. Offline and online.”
Next scarce good: “Trust and unity will remain vital for the EU to stand up to challenges.”
AGENDA
— Eurozone inflation figures released.
— EU High Representative Josep Borrell continues Morocco visit. Doorstep at the Euro-Mediterranean University of Fez expected at 1 p.m. (TBC). Watch.
— Energy Commissioner Kadri Simson participates in the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Estonia’s winter seminar panel discussion focusing on energy, in Viimsi, Estonia.
BRUSSELS CORNER
CONDOLENCES: Slovak MEP Miroslav Číž, a member of European Parliament’s Committee on International Trade, died last month at the age of 68. Parliament President Roberta Metsola remembered him in a tweet as a “defender of social justice, a promoter of inclusion … who stood up for people’s social rights.”
BIRTHDAYS: MEPs Margrete Auken and Dietmar Köster; Former MEP Richard Corbett; POLITICO’s Kelsey Hayes; Daily Telegraph’s James Crisp; European Commission’s Alberto Fernández-Díez, head of the economic and trade section at the EU mission to Ukraine.
THANKS TO: Emma Anderson, Eddy Wax and our producer Grace Stranger.
**A message from the United Nations World Food Programme: Conflict. Food prices that remain at a 10-year high. Ever-worsening climate shocks. The threat of global recession. All these things are forcing more and more people towards hunger. As 2023 threatens to accelerate humanitarian needs further beyond the record highs of last year, WFP relies more than ever on the support and generosity of key partners like the European Union. Together, we are delivering emergency food assistance. We are using cash-based transfers to keep local economies strong. We are anticipating disasters before they strike. We are enabling people to withstand severe climate shocks. We are supporting smallholder farmers as they restore ecosystems and build livelihoods. And we are working to prevent the use of hunger as a weapon. In 2023, WFP and the European Union will continue our essential partnership to save and change lives around the world.**
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Nicholas Vinocur